Reducing the number of Indian immigrants after the election of the new Canadian government

How the election of the new Canadian government under Prime Minister Mark Carney has influenced immigration policies, particularly concerning Indian immigrants. This analysis will also consider recent policy changes and their implications for Indian immigrants and prospective migrants.

Background on Canada’s Immigration Policy Changes

Canada has historically been a top destination for immigrants, including a significant number from India. However, recent shifts in immigration policies have introduced stricter controls on both permanent and temporary immigration streams. These changes are driven by concerns over housing shortages, infrastructure strain, and economic capacity to absorb newcomers effectively.

The resignation of Justin Trudeau in 2024 marked a turning point in Canadian politics. Under Trudeau’s tenure (2015–2023), Canada experienced a “golden era” for international students and immigrants, particularly Indians. However, with Mark Carney’s election as Prime Minister in late 2024, the federal government adopted a more restrictive stance on immigration to align with its long-term economic planning.

Key Policy Changes Impacting Indian Immigrants

1. Reduction in Permanent Resident Targets

The new government announced reductions in permanent resident admissions through its 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan:

• From 500,000 permanent residents annually (as per previous plans) to:
  • 395,000 in 2025
  • 380,000 in 2026
  • 365,000 in 2027

India has consistently been the largest source country for permanent residents to Canada (27% of total PR admissions as of 2022). The reduction in overall PR targets will disproportionately affect Indian applicants due to their significant representation among skilled workers and family reunification categories.

2. Caps on Temporary Residents

The government introduced measures to reduce temporary resident volumes to 5% of Canada’s population by the end of 2026. This includes international students and temporary foreign workers—two groups where Indians dominate:

• International students from India accounted for 45% of all study permits issued as of 2022.
• Temporary foreign workers from India made up a substantial portion (22%) of this category.

Specific measures include:

• A cap on international student enrolments at certain institutions.
• Tightened eligibility requirements for temporary foreign workers.
• Elimination of post-graduation work permit (PGWP) eligibility for private-public partnership college programs starting November 1, 2024.

These restrictions aim to curb unsustainable growth in temporary residency numbers while addressing systemic issues like housing shortages and labor market mismatches.

3. Withdrawal of Fast-Track Programs

The closure of expedited visa processing programs such as the Student Direct Stream (SDS) has created additional barriers for Indian students seeking study permits. Previously designed to streamline applications from countries like India, this program’s removal has slowed visa approvals significantly.

4. Increased Scrutiny on Educational Institutions

The Canadian government is cracking down on fraudulent practices involving subpar colleges that exploit international students—many from India—by offering low-quality education or false promises about pathways to permanent residency. This increased scrutiny may deter some prospective Indian students from applying altogether.

Implications for Indian Immigrants

Economic Impact

Indian immigrants have historically contributed significantly to Canada’s economy across sectors such as healthcare, technology, construction, and transportation. For example:

• Immigrants account for 23% of general contractors and residential builders in Canada’s construction sector.
• Many skilled professionals from India fill critical labor shortages across industries.

However, reduced immigration targets could slow this contribution while exacerbating existing labor shortages in key sectors.

Social Impact

Family reunification—a major driver of Indian immigration—is likely to face delays due to reduced PR quotas and slower application processing times caused by staffing cuts at Canadian visa offices in India.

Diplomatic Relations

India remains one of Canada’s largest sources of migrants and an important trade partner. The reduction in immigration opportunities may strain bilateral relations further following recent diplomatic tensions between the two nations.

Rationale Behind Policy Changes

Prime Minister Mark Carney has emphasized that these measures are necessary to ensure sustainable population growth while addressing systemic challenges such as:

1. Housing affordability: Reduced immigrant inflows are expected to alleviate pressure on housing markets by decreasing demand.
2. Infrastructure strain: By slowing population growth temporarily, provinces can better align resources like healthcare services with demographic needs.
3. Labor market alignment: The focus is shifting toward attracting “serious” immigrants who meet Canada’s long-term economic goals rather than those pursuing short-term benefits like unauthorized employment or low-quality education programs.

Carney stated that Canada had previously taken in more people than its economy could handle effectively: “We’re letting down the people that we let in.”

Challenges Facing Prospective Indian Migrants

1. Longer Processing Times: With reduced staff at Canadian visa offices in India following diplomatic disputes between the two countries (October 2023), applicants face extended wait times.
2. Higher Financial Requirements: Study permit applicants must now demonstrate savings exceeding CAD $20,000—a significant increase that poses challenges for middle-class families.
3. Uncertainty Over Pathways: The elimination or restriction of PGWP eligibility creates uncertainty about post-study work opportunities—a key factor motivating many Indians to choose Canada as a study destination.

Conclusion

The election of Prime Minister Mark Carney has ushered in a new era for Canadian immigration policy characterized by tighter controls on both permanent and temporary migration streams. These changes are expected to significantly reduce the number of Indian immigrants entering Canada over the next three years due to lower PR targets, caps on temporary residents like international students and foreign workers, withdrawal of fast-track programs like SDS, and increased scrutiny on educational institutions catering predominantly to Indians. While these measures aim to address systemic challenges such as housing shortages and infrastructure strain, they also risk slowing economic contributions from one of Canada’s most vital immigrant communities while straining diplomatic ties with India further.